Many investors realize that the stock market is a volatile place to invest their money. The daily, quarterly and annual moves can be dramatic, but it is this volatility that also generates the market returns investors experience.

In this article we'll explain how volatility affects investors' returns and how to take advantage of it. Volatility Defined Volatility is a measure of dispersion around the mean or average return of a security. One way to measure volatility is by using the standard deviationwhich tells you how tightly the price of a stock is grouped around the mean or moving average MA.

Investment Probability: Is it Dangerous to Make Market Predictions?

When the prices are tightly bunched together, the standard deviation is small. When the price is spread apart, you have a relatively large standard deviation.

Option Volatility For securitiesthe higher the standard deviation, the greater the dispersion of returns and the higher the risk associated with the investment. As described by modern portfolio theory MPTvolatility creates risk that is associated with the degree of dispersion of returns around the average.

In other words, the greater the chance of a lower-than-expected return, the riskier the investment. For more insight, read Modern Portfolio Theory: Why It's Still Hip and Find The Highest Returns With The Sharpe Ratio. Another way to measure volatility is to take the average range for each period, from the low price value to the high price value. This range is then expressed as a percentage of the beginning of the period.

Larger movements in price creating a higher price range result in higher volatility. Lower price ranges result in lower volatility. For related reading, see Measure Volatility With Average True Range. Market Performance and Volatility There is a strong relationship between volatility and market performance.

Volatility tends to decline as the stock market rises and increase as the stock market falls. When volatility increases, risk increases and returns decrease.

Risk is represented by the dispersion of returns around the mean. The greater the dispersion of returns around the mean, the larger the drop in the compound return. In a report, Crestmont Research examined the historical relationship between stock market performance and the volatility of the market.

Their research tells us that higher volatility corresponds to a higher probability of a declining market. Lower volatility corresponds to a higher probability of a rising market. When the average daily range moves up to the fourth quartile 1. The effects of volatility and risk are consistent across the spectrum. This research shows that we need to be aware of the volatility in the market if we hope to adjust our portfolios as it changes.

Factors That Affect Volatility Region and country economic factors, such as tax and interest rate policy, contribute to the directional change of the market and thus volatility. For example, in many countries, the central bank sets the short-term interest rates for overnight borrowing by banks.

When they change the overnight rateit can cause stock markets to react, sometimes violently. Changes in inflation trends influence the long-term stock market trends and volatility. This is when markets experience low volatility as they trend higher. This tends to cause the stock markets to decline and experience higher volatility. Industry and sector factors can also cause increased stock market volatility. For example, in the oil sector, a major weather storm in an important producing area can cause prices of oil to jump up.

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As a result, the price of oil-related stocks will follow suit. Some benefit from the higher price of oilothers will be hurt. This increased volatility affects overall markets as well as individual stocks. Assessing Current Volatility in the Market Using Crestmont's research, investors can use their understanding of the longer term volatility of the stock market to align their probability theory and stock market with the expected returns.

But, how do we know if the market is experiencing higher volatility? One way is to use the CBOE Volatility Index VIX. The VIX is used as a tool to measure investor risk. A high reading on the VIX marks periods of higher stock market volatility. This high volatility also aligns with stock market bottoms. Low readings on the VIX mark periods probability theory and stock market lower volatility. The periods of low volatility may last several years and are not as good for identifying market tops.

The VIX is intended to be forward lookingmeasuring the market's expected volatility over the next 30 days. However, if the VIX is high, there is a concern that the market is going to continue to go down.

This fear makes it difficult to buy during high stock market volatility. But, investors who used the high on the VIX strategi trading forex jangka pendek time their buys entered the market at or near the low.

To find out how the Trading strategies with futures measures volatility, read Getting a VIX on Market Direction. Volatility works well to help identify market bottoms based on high volatility.

For long-term investors, it also does a pretty good job of helping to identify that the stock market is at or near a top, when volatility is very low. Keep in mind that this indicator is not intended to time the exact top, but rather day trading vs hedge funds the volatility of the market does not stay substantially below the mean for a long period of time.

As the volatility increases, then the market's performance will tend to decrease. Conclusion The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets has a direct impact on portfolios.

It also adds to the level of concern and worry on the part of investors as they watch the value of their portfolios move more violently and decrease in value. This causes irrational responses which can increase investors' losses. As an investor's portfolio of stocks declines, it will likely cause them to " rebalance " the weighting between stocks and bonds by buying foreign exchange gold rates stocks as the price falls.

Investors can use volatility to help them buy lower than they might have otherwise. Dictionary Term Of The Day. A measure of what it costs an investment company to operate a mutual fund. Latest Videos PeerStreet Offers New Way to Bet on Housing New to Buying Bitcoin?

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Volatility's Impact On Market Returns By Hans Wagner Share. Crestmont Research This research shows that we need to be aware of the volatility in the market if we hope to adjust our portfolios as it changes. If you can keep your head while those about you are losing theirs, you can make a nice return in roiling markets. Inverse ETFs sound like a great way to take advantage of market volatility.

But it's important to understand how they work before you invest. Find out how much volatility global equity investors are in for during by seeing how much they've experienced over the past five years. Volatile stocks can be a lucrative opportunity for short-term traders. For buy-and-hold investors, it's a much different story.

Trading volatility is an interesting idea, but current ETFs and ETNs do a fairly poor job of it. Learn the best ways to profit and hedge using the Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index. Sometimes the best defense is the lack of offense. Here are the best boring ways to protect your portfolio in volatile markets.

Elliott Wave Theory :: The Market Oracle ::

Learn the most commonly used technical indicators of stock market volatility that are watched by stock market traders and Find out why investors and analysts use the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, or VIX, to measure the market's Learn what the relationship is between implied volatility and the volatility skew, and see how implied volatility impacts An expense ratio is determined through an annual A hybrid of debt and equity financing that is typically used to finance the expansion of existing companies.

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